Orientation

Two Projects, One Login

The site runs two separate strategy projects. The logos in the navigation bar switch between them.

• ⚡ WEATHER_BET_BOT trades daily high-temperature markets on Polymarket, using weather forecasts and the market's own prices.
• * ARB_BOT trades price differences between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same event.

Each project keeps its own settings, bankroll, trades and results. This page covers the Weather Bet Bot side and the account setup both projects share.

The Home Page

Once you're logged in, the Weather Bet Bot home page is your dashboard. From top to bottom:

• At a Glance: how many of your conditions are on Paper (simulated) and how many are Active, so you always know what is being tracked and what is set to trade.
• Pause All Active Trading: switches every Active condition back to Paper immediately. Your budget settings are kept.
• Today's numbers: trades placed and money invested today.
• Daily PnL calendar: profit or loss for each day, with the running Profit Share Owed.
• Monthly PnL and Account Balance: how your results and balance have moved over time.
• Source Variance Analysis: how far each weather forecast source has been from the actual temperatures recently.

The calendar and charts stay empty until your Portfolio has confirmed conditions producing trades.

Why There Are Two Scorecards

Because the two projects are separate systems, each has its own Scorecard, and their results are never mixed.

• Weather Scorecard (Scorecard → User Scorecard, on the Weather Bet Bot side): your weather trades, by day, condition and city, with PnL, bank growth, win rate and Profit Share Owed.
• Arbitrage Scorecard (Scorecard, on the Arb Bot side): your arbitrage trades across Paper and Active, by event type and date.

Admins also see a Bot Scorecard on the weather side. It tracks trades entered by hand on the Daily Wager page rather than your Portfolio's strategy trades. See How to Trade for more.

Connecting Your Kalshi and Polymarket Accounts

Your trading accounts stay yours. The site is connected to them with API keys, never your login password.

1. Know which keys you need. Weather betting uses Polymarket only. Arbitrage uses both Kalshi and Polymarket.
2. Create an API key in each platform's own account settings.
3. Send the keys to an admin through the secure channel you agree on. Account details are entered by an admin; My Account is read-only.
4. Check My Account. Once added, your Polymarket key shows as Configured. My Account also shows your Profit Share percentage and whether your agreement is signed.

Keys are stored encrypted, and you can revoke one at any time from the platform that issued it.

Trend Trading

Trend Trading is where the weather strategies live. Each strategy is a family of conditions: specific entry and exit rules, each tracked on its own with results by city.

• Landing Report compares every strategy side by side and lets you see how results change when you keep only the cities you trust.
• Comfort Zone, Delta Trend, Rage of the Machine, Sure Thing and Sweet Spot can be chosen in your Portfolio.
• Bell Curve, Market Knows, Nope and Tap Out are research-only and can't be traded from Portfolio.

Each strategy page explains its rules in plain language. A condition and city show up in Portfolio only after they have enough history and a positive track record.

Research

Research pages each ask one question about how the weather markets behave. They inform the strategies but don't place trades.

• Probability: do quoted prices match how often buckets actually win?
• Divergence: does the gap between the favorite and the runner-up predict how often the favorite wins?
• Delta: does the size of a price move during the day carry information about the outcome?
• Tap Out: when is it better to lock in a gain than hold to the close?
• Stop Loss: how far can a position fall before it's unlikely to recover?
• Winners: which city, strategy and condition combinations have performed best.
• Metrics: every strategy and condition compared across performance measures.
• Whales: do some wallets consistently win these markets, and what do they do?
• Intraday Arbitrage: how often each typical daily price path happens.