How to Trade

How trading works on the Weather Bet Bot side, from connecting your account to reviewing results. New to the site? Start with the Orientation.

Two Ways to Trade

The Weather Bet Bot trades Polymarket's daily highest-temperature markets for each city. Trades happen in one of two ways:

Automatically, through Portfolio. You choose which Trend Trading strategies to follow, and the bot places their trades for you every day.
By hand, through Daily Wager. You pick the bucket, side and amount yourself.

Step 1: Connect Your Accounts

The site connects to your trading accounts with API keys. It never asks for your login password, and your money stays in your own account.

Polymarket is required for weather trading.
Kalshi is only needed for the Arbitrage project, which trades on both platforms.

Create an API key in each platform's account settings.
Send it to an admin through the secure channel you agree on. Admins enter account details; My Account is read-only.
Check My Account. Your Polymarket API key should show as Configured, and your agreement as Signed.

Keys are stored encrypted, and you can revoke a key at any time from the platform that issued it.

Paper Trading vs. Active Trading

	Paper	Active
Money	None. Trades are simulated.	Real orders on your Polymarket account.
Prices and sizing	Identical. Both use the same market prices, budget rules and limits.
Results	Both are recorded and shown on your Home page and Scorecard, labeled Paper or Active.
Default	Every condition starts here.	Only after you switch it and press Confirm.

Paper and Active are set per condition, so you can keep some strategies on Paper while others trade live.

Current status: real order placement isn't live yet. Until it is, Active conditions are tracked the same way as Paper and no real money is traded.

Portfolio: Automatic Trading

Portfolio turns Trend Trading strategies into daily trades for you. For each strategy you can:

Pick conditions. Only conditions and cities with at least 10 days of history and a 5% or better average ROI over that period are offered.
Set a budget. Give each condition a percentage of your budget. It's split evenly across the cities you leave switched on.
Choose Paper or Active for each condition.

Limits keep any one strategy or city from taking over: a system-wide maximum daily exposure, an optional tighter personal limit you set, and a cap on how much of the budget any single city can receive.

Nothing changes until you press Confirm Portfolio. The one exception is Pause All Active Trading, which switches every Active condition back to Paper immediately.

Moving a Strategy to Active Trading

Run it on Paper first. Add the condition in Portfolio on Paper and let it trade for a while.
Review the results in your User Scorecard and on the strategy's Trend Trading page.
Check your account. My Account should show your Polymarket API key as Configured and your agreement as Signed.
Switch it to Active in Portfolio and press Confirm Portfolio.
Confirm it on Home. The At a Glance count shows how many conditions are now Active.
Pause any time. Pause All Active Trading on Home or Portfolio sends everything back to Paper at once.

Daily Wager: Trading by Hand

Daily Wager (under Trader) is for trades you choose yourself, one city at a time.

It shows the system's forecast temperature distribution next to the market's YES and NO prices for each bucket.
You set the side and amount for a bucket, within that city's daily budget, and save it.
Today's Trades lists each wager with its status, result and PnL.

If the latest forecast data is out of date, trade entry locks so no wager is placed against stale numbers. Daily Wager currently appears in the menu for admin accounts.

Scorecards: Comparing Results

The two weather scorecards keep the two ways of trading separate, so you can compare them.

Scorecard	Tracks	Who sees it
User Scorecard	Your Portfolio's automatic strategy trades, Paper and Active, by day, condition and city.	Every trader
Bot Scorecard	Trades entered by hand on Daily Wager.	Admins