Trend Trading Strategy
Sure Thing
Always ride the bucket priced 0.60 or more, cut it at 0.40, and switch to whichever bucket
takes the lead. Runs on the live Polymarket order book (real bids and asks, checked every
30 seconds), not the hourly snapshots - so it only has results from when book recording began.
Conditions
- Flip to the Leader - 1 share per leg:
- Any bucket priced 0.60+ that we hold nothing on: buy YES.
- The YES we hold falls to 0.40: sell it and buy NO on that bucket.
- A bucket we hold NO on climbs back to 0.60: sell the NO and buy its YES again (one round trip).
- After 2 round trips, the next fall to 0.40 locks the bucket: buy NO and keep the YES (together they always pay $1.00), and stop trading it.
- Everything else is held to resolution: YES on the winner and NO on every other bucket pay $1.00.
- Hold the Leader (baseline) - buy YES, 1 share, on the first bucket priced 0.60+ and hold it to resolution. Shows what the stops and flips add.
The price is the one Polymarket shows (the midpoint, or the last trade when the spread is
wider than 0.10). Every trade is filled at the real ask (buying) or bid (selling) at that
moment, even after a jump, and pays the taker fee. Each trade row is one leg.
Latest snapshot
2026-11-06
Manually resolve pending paper trades for settled markets.