Trend Trading Strategy

Sweet Spot

Buy the market's own confirmed favorite while it's still mispriced - not the longshots, not the already-obvious near-certainties.

Shared entry rules (both conditions)
  1. The bucket priced highest at the snapshot must be the market's forecast favorite.
  2. That top price must be unique - no tie with another bucket.
  3. Its YES price must be between 50% and 70%.
  4. All times are that city's own real local time - not PST, not a shared clock.
Where the two conditions differ
  • Full Window - checked hourly, 7am-3pm local; first qualifying snapshot each day wins.
  • Peak Hours - checked at 7am local only, falling back to 2pm the same day if 7am's snapshot is missing or doesn't qualify. 7am and 2pm were the two strongest hours by total PnL pooled across every city (not any one city's personal favorite).
Both: buy YES, 1 unit, hold to close, no stop-loss, at most one entry per city-day. Derived from the price-and-timing research on the Probability research page - see that page's Calibration, Expected PnL, and Timing sections for the data this is built on.
Latest snapshot
2026-09-21
Manually resolve pending paper trades for settled markets.
Strategy Filters
City, Date, and Condition
Bank Close
$0.00
PnL
$0.00
Trades
0
Realized ROI
0.0%
$0.00 open
Avg ROI/Day
0.0%

Bank Over Time

Daily PnL Waterfall

Condition KPI Comparison

Click a condition's name for its own trades drill-down and research page.

Condition Trades Spent Pending $ PnL ROI Avg ROI/Day EV/Trade Profit Factor Bank Close
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