Orientation

New here? Start with this page. It explains how the site is laid out, what each section of the arbitrage project does, and the steps to go from reading about the strategy to actively trading it. For a tour of the whole site, including how to connect your Kalshi and Polymarket accounts, see the general Orientation.

Two Projects, One Account

The two logos in the navigation bar lead to two separate strategy projects. One login covers both, and clicking a logo switches between them.

LogoProjectWhat it does
⚡ WEATHER_BET_BOT Weather Betting Trades weather markets using forecast data.
* ARB_BOT Arbitrage Buys opposite sides of the same event on Kalshi and Polymarket when their prices disagree.

The two projects keep their own settings, bankroll and trade history. Changing something in one never affects the other. Log In, Log Out and My Account are on the Weather Bet Bot side.

The rest of this page covers the Arbitrage project.

The Strategy in Brief

Kalshi and Polymarket often list the same real-world question, such as a Fed rate decision or the monthly unemployment rate, and each sets its own price. When the prices disagree by enough, buying one side on Kalshi and the opposite side on Polymarket costs less than the $1.00 that one of the two is guaranteed to pay out. The difference, after fees, is the profit, whichever way the event goes.

For the full case, see the Thesis. For the risks and common questions, see the FAQ.

The Five Sections

Research is open to everyone. Paper Trading, Active Trading, Portfolio and Scorecard appear in the navigation once you're logged in.

SectionWhat it isWhat you do there
Research The notebooks behind the strategy: feasibility studies and backtests on real historical prices, one or more per event type. Read them to see which event types have worked, how often, and why.
Paper Trading A simulation that runs automatically on every eligible event, using live prices and no real money. It sizes trades against the bankroll set in Portfolio. Nothing to set up. Pick an event type from the menu and watch the live prices and the trade ledger.
Portfolio Your settings for Active Trading: bankroll, trade size, take-profit and DRIP (which releases your bankroll in stages as events get closer), plus which events and outcomes ("buckets") you trade and how much budget each one gets. Set your risk limits, activate buckets, and confirm. Pause All stops new trades across the board.
Active Trading The buckets you've activated in Portfolio, with live prices, a resolution calendar, your trade list and a rolling bankroll chart. Monitor your positions. Pause a single event without touching the others.
Scorecard Your combined results across Paper and Active trading: PnL, ROI, win rate and every trade, filterable by event type and date. Review performance, press Resolve to settle positions on events that have finished, and export to CSV.
How to Start Active Trading
  1. Learn the strategy. Read the Thesis and FAQ, then the Research notebook for any event type you're interested in.
  2. Watch it on paper. Open Paper Trading for that event type and follow it through at least one event resolving. Check the results in Scorecard.
  3. Get your account connected. An admin links your Kalshi and Polymarket API keys to your account. An event type also has to be approved for live trading before its buckets can be activated.
  4. Set your limits. In Portfolio, enter your bankroll, trade size, take-profit and DRIP preference, then save.
  5. Choose what to trade. Still in Portfolio, activate the buckets you want, give each a budget percentage, and confirm.
  6. Monitor. Your activated buckets appear in Active Trading. Pause a single event there, or everything from Portfolio, at any time.
  7. Review. After events resolve, press Resolve in Scorecard to settle open positions, then compare your results with Paper Trading.